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New Orleans - St Louis Rams    -7
Sunday, November 11th, 2007 19:00
US Sports - NFL


Pick:  New Orleans (-10.5)   Result: NO 29-37 STL
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  2.02
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Nov 11, 2007, 15:56

After a horrendous 0-4 start to the season the Saints are starting to look more like last years successful team. They are winning; winning big, and looking stronger each game. Drew Brees has gotten his game together having improved his completion percentage by more than 8 points in the last four games. Marques Colston also appears to be turning his season around with 18 catches for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last two games. This spark to the passing game has also opened up the running game for Bush, who is developing into a bigger threat as he is acting as an effective receiver as well. Bush did sit out of practice on Wednesday with a bruised knee, but should be set to go for Sunday’s game.

The Rams have come close, twice losing by a field goal or less, but despite this have an average losing margin of 15 points. The biggest challenge in this game for the Saints may actually be the non-threatening nature of the Rams. But after opening the season with four losses and loosing the support of a lot of their fans, this home game is a chance to win back support with a big win. As long as the Saints come out with their recent form, ready to play and not on cruise control, they should steamroll right over the Rams with a big victory.


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Miami - Buffalo    +3.95
Sunday, November 11th, 2007 19:00
US Sports - NFL


Pick:  Buffalo (-1)   Result: MIA 10-13 BUF
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  1.79
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Nov 11, 2007, 15:52

For Buffalo, motivation and morale should be high. While sitting at only 4-4, they have won 4 of their last 5 and have the opportunity to go above .500 for the first time in over two years. They have been playing good football of late, and a win this week could thrust them into the wildcard race. And as a divisional game, the win is even more important. With Losman back and in excellent form, he should be able to lead the Bills to an easy win over the Dolphins.

Miami had a bye-week last week after losing their first eight. This could be an important factor in this game. Last year they began their season 1-7, and were then able to beat the undefeated Bears after their bye-week. This is likely to be playing on all of their minds and they may be thinking that this is the week for them to finally get a win. There have been some signs of improvement having lost to the Giants by only 3 points in London the week before. They are still without starting QB Trent Greeen, and the recent loss of running back Ronnie Brown is a devastating one, as he appeared to be the slight glimmer to the Miami offence. Miami have lost four of their games by only a 3 point margin, but without Brown, I don’t see how they should be able to get close to this Buffalo team.

The x-factor of the bye week for Miami keeps this at medium stakes. If Buffalo win, which they should, they should win comfortably.







San Diego - Indianapolis    -8
Monday, November 12th, 2007 02:15
US Sports - NFL


Pick:  Indianapolis (-3.5)   Result: SD 23-21 IND
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  2.05
Bookmaker:  Pinnacle   vCash: No  
Posted: Nov 11, 2007, 15:48

The Chargers suffered an embarrassing loss last week to Minnesota and motivation will be high to break the .500 barrier. The Chargers are beginning to look like last year’s winning team again, having won four of the last five and maybe this may be why the spread is so small here. The problem for San Diego, though, is that they are a winning team against mediocre teams. Last season they played only one team that finished the season above 9-7, which was one of their only two losses. Again, the games they have won this year have been against mid-table teams, with all four wins coming against teams who are currently under .500.

The Colts, on the other hand, are not a mediocre team. The defending Super Bowl champs have been playing seemingly unstoppable football until allowing a 4th quarter lead to slip away to the Patriots last week. After this loss they should come out firing and ready to make a point. This game is a very important mental match for the Colts, as they don’t want to see the same slide they suffered last season after starting 9-0.

As for the match-up itself, SD were completely unable to defend the running game of Adrian Petersen last week. The combination of Addai and Keith should prove equally troubling for the Chargers this week. If they hope to have any chance in this game, they will have to figure out how to stop these two. As for their offence, they rely too heavily on last year’s league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. A one-man show can be good enough to defeat average teams, but against the Colts, they will need much more, and they don’t appear to have it in them. The Colts showed their first signs of weakness last week in their inability to defend against the long ball in the fourth quarter, but that was much more telling of the Patriot offence than the Colt defence. The Chargers do have both the home field and historical advantage in this match-up, but these two teams are simply not of comparable calibre. I have to favour the Colts here to win, and to win by a comfortable margin. The handicap of -3.5 for the Colts appears to present excellent value.


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Betting:  Part-time
 
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Picks:
Won:
Win rate: 33% 
Stake avg.: 6.7 
Staked: 20.00 
Returned: 8.95 
Net balance: -11.05 
ROI*: 45% 
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vCash (0/0): $100.00 

*ROI = Return Of Investment


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